No Maritime Breakthrough Likely During ASEAN-China Talks

Tensions over the South China Sea are
the backdrop of this week's meeting
between foreign ministers from China
and the 10 members of the Association
of Southeast Asian Nations , or ASEAN.

The issue is expected to be a major
focus of the agenda in Beijing. It is also
high on the agenda in Brunei, where
regional defense chiefs are meeting with
their counterparts from China, the U.S.
and other countries. But a  breakthrough
is seen as unlikely. The ASEAN countries
are seeking a quick resolution to
negotiations on a Code of Conduct for
the South China Sea and multilateral
talks on territorial disputes in and
around the sea. But both positions are
at odds with a Chinese government that
has been increasingly aggressive in
promoting its maritime territorial claims.

After a half day retreat in Thailand this
month, ASEAN foreign ministers said
they are prepared to speak with one
voice on the issue of quickly negotiating
a long sought Code of Conduct, a
binding agreement that would regulate
maritime behavior and that could set the
stage for talks to resolve territorial
disputes. But former U.S. Deputy
Assistant Secretary of Defense James
Clad said the pronouncement by ASEAN
is not likely to have any effect. "We'll
firstly, I don't believe ASEAN does speak
with one voice," Clad said. "For starters,
the Cambodians, where the heads of
state meeting was held not so long ago,
have made every effort to oblige its
friends in Beijing. So the idea that there
will be one voice from ASEAN regarding
the South China Sea is inherently and
empirically improbable. That said, it's
useful to go in with what is essentially
kind of a bluff. But I don't think it will
have any measurable outcome in the
talks with the Chinese, who will kick the
can down the road, which is what they
always do." Cambodia-China
Cambodia’s close relationship with
China came under close scrutiny last
year when it hosted a major ASEAN
summit in Phnom Penh. For the first
time in history, the ministers were
unable to agree on the language of a
joint declaration, a signal of ongoing
controversy among the ministers.

Last
week, Cambodia's foreign minister held
talks with his Chinese counterpart and
urged closer ties between ASEAN and
Beijing. But independent analyst Lao
Monghay told VOA it is part of the same
old game plan for Beijing. “The strategy
of China is to divide ASEAN," he said. “It
succeeded in the summit in Cambodia
last year.” China has said it is in no
rush to negotiate a Code of Conduct. It
is also opposed to a multilateral solution
to its territorial disputes, preferring to
hold only bilateral talks with its ASEAN
neighbors. US diplomacy
The United States, which says it does
not take sides in the territorial disputes,
has increased its diplomatic
engagement on the issue. David Shear,
the U.S. Ambassador to Vietnam, told
VOA a Code of Conduct would be an
important step for the region. "We are
engaged in a very strong dialogue with
the Vietnamese on this subject and we
talk about a variety of things, including
what is going on on the water," Shear
noted, "including what is going on with
regards to possible negotiations with the
Chinese on a Code of Conduct on the
South China Sea, which we believe it is
implemented, negotiated and
implemented, it would greatly reduce
tensions on the water, on the South
China Sea." The United States and
Vietnam still have major disagreements
on some issues, including human rights.

But Alexander Vuving of the Asia-Pacific
Center for Security Studies believes a
U.S.-Vietnamese strategic partnership is
definitely possible in the long-run
because of China’s increasing
aggressiveness in the South China Sea,
and the Obama administration's "pivot"
to Asia. “In the near future, there are still
many obstacles in Viet-US relationship,
but in the long run, this bilateral
relationship will be much closer given
the fact that China is becoming more
and more determined in their
sovereignty claims in the South China
Sea which is in direct conflict with
Vietnam’s interests in the disputed sea,"
Vuving said. "In the long run, a Viet-US
strategic partnership is something
definitely possible amid the growing
corruption of the current dictatorship
government in Vietnam, China’s
increasing aggressiveness in the South
China Sea, and US’s Asia pivot”.

Philippines
The United States is also talking with
the Philippines, including negotiations to
increase the rotational presence of U.S.
military forces and equipment. On
Monday, U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck
Hagel announced a major increase in
U.S. funding for military education and
training programs in Southeast Asia.
James Clad said the U.S. engagement is
increasing the leverage of ASEAN
countries. "I think the thing to
understand is that with this
administration, the great advantage, the
great gain in diplomacy, Secretary
Gates, former Defense Secretary and
[former] Secretary of State Clinton were
in Hanoi in 2010 and they indicated that
the American position was that this had
to be resolved multilaterally," Clad said.

"Which was a significant gain for ASEAN
leverage. The Chinese didn't like it then
and they don't like it now. Like all big
powers dealing with smaller powers,
they prefer to have things done
bilaterally [because] it gives them more
leverage." But Su Xiaohui, from the
Chinese Institute of International
Studies, said China finds the idea of
multilateral negotiations unacceptable.

“Basically, the Philippines believes it is
in a disadvantageous position vis-à-vis
China on South China Sea negotiations
and China’s development will lead to
weakening of the Philippines’ position,
so they do not want to conduct bilateral
negotiations with China," Su said.

"The
Philippines is attempting to use
American support to increase its
leverage against China. The Philippines
wants to make COA a multilateral
agreement with which to settle the South
China Sea territorial dispute. The
Philippines believes it will enjoy an
advantageous position in multilateral
talks. China cannot accept this because
we don’t consider the South China Sea
a multilateral issue. Although it involves
six parties - Taiwan and five   countries -
it is in fact a bilateral issue between two
countries over some reefs and disputed
waters; it is not an issue to be
negotiated multilaterally." The South
China Sea is believed to hold massive
oil and natural gas reserves. It is the
site of territorial disputes between China
and nations such as Taiwan, Vietnam,
Brunei, Malaysia and the Philippines.
Japan and China are involved in a
separate dispute in the East China Sea.

Fred Wang contributed to this report
from Beijing, Tra Mi contributed from
Washington and Kong Sothanarith
contributed from Phnom Penh. This
report was produced in collaboration
with the Mandarin, Vietnamese and
Khmer services.